Paper

Thu, Oct 29, 2026

Jets 4 Lightning 6

Deserved to win

WPG 19%81% TBL

WPG 2.10 xG on 37 attempts, TBL 4.19 xG excl. empty net on 43, empty nets left out. How it works →

2%WPG 3+
4%WPG 2
7%WPG 1
12%Tied
16%TBL 1
17%TBL 2
42%TBL 3+
Replayed: final margins. Dark bar = actual result.

Scoring

Every goal, all situations, with the score after it (away–home).

  1. Period 1

    1. 2:20TBLBrayden Point (1)Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel0–1
    2. 17:45WPGNeal Pionk (1)Cole Perfetti, Mark Scheifele1–1

  2. Period 2

    1. 9:43TBLConor Geekie (1)Dominic James, Jeffrey Viel1–2
    2. 15:56TBLAnthony Cirelli (1)PPPontus Holmberg, Gage Goncalves1–3
    3. 18:07TBLJohn Carlson (1)Pontus Holmberg, Brandon Hagel1–4
    4. 19:03TBLBrandon Hagel (1)Anthony Cirelli, Pontus Holmberg1–5

  3. Period 3

    1. 7:00WPGDylan Samberg (1)Cole Perfetti, Mark Scheifele2–5
    2. 8:50WPGNeal Pionk (2)Dawson Mercer, Kyle Connor3–5
    3. 17:12WPGKyle Connor (1)6v5Mark Scheifele, Dylan Samberg4–5
    4. 18:29TBLPontus Holmberg (1)ENAnthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel4–6

Goalies

Saves on shots on goal (the NHL's boxscore), all situations; GSAx is expected goals against minus goals against on unblocked attempts while he was in.

Teams

TeamTOICF%GF%xGF%xGFxGASh%Sv%PDO
WPG
6044.440.031.22.104.6219.080.699.7
TBL
6055.660.068.84.622.1019.481.0100.3

Flow

Unblocked attempts, running total · WPG 37, TBL 44

WPGTBL goal

Shots

Anthony Cirelli, P2 14:40, snap, missed, 0.28 xGJake Guentzel, P2 14:46, snap, on goal, 0.28 xGJake Guentzel, P2 14:47, snap, on goal, 0.26 xGJohn Carlson, P2 0:47, snap, on goal, 0.19 xGJake Guentzel, P2 15:47, deflected, on goal, 0.18 xGConor Geekie, P2 13:55, snap, missed, 0.18 xGBrayden Point, P1 15:06, snap, on goal, 0.17 xGBrandon Hagel, P2 4:49, snap, missed, 0.16 xGAdam Lowry, P3 12:48, wrist, missed, 0.16 xGJake Guentzel, P2 3:32, wrist, on goal, 0.14 xGDawson Mercer, P3 6:03, wrist, on goal, 0.11 xGPontus Holmberg, P3 12:22, backhand, missed, 0.11 xGMark Scheifele, P1 4:00, wrist, missed, 0.11 xGJeffrey Viel, P3 0:47, deflected, on goal, 0.11 xGBrandon Hagel, P2 4:56, tip-in, on goal, 0.10 xGNikita Kucherov, P2 15:46, wrist, on goal, 0.10 xGJake Guentzel, P2 3:41, backhand, on goal, 0.10 xGJake Guentzel, P3 4:40, wrist, on goal, 0.10 xGGabriel Vilardi, P2 11:31, wrist, missed, 0.10 xGMorgan Barron, P2 12:54, wrist, missed, 0.10 xGDawson Mercer, P1 9:17, tip-in, missed, 0.09 xGAdam Lowry, P3 16:05, tip-in, missed, 0.09 xGIsak Rosen, P1 0:29, backhand, on goal, 0.09 xGKyle Connor, P1 5:45, tip-in, on goal, 0.09 xGBrandon Hagel, P3 12:09, wrist, on goal, 0.09 xGIsak Rosen, P3 4:50, snap, missed, 0.08 xGBrandon Hagel, P1 13:45, wrist, on goal, 0.08 xGNikita Kucherov, P1 18:27, snap, on goal, 0.08 xGCole Perfetti, P2 1:48, deflected, on goal, 0.08 xGCole Perfetti, P2 6:58, snap, on goal, 0.07 xGKyle Connor, P2 7:23, wrist, on goal, 0.07 xGConor Geekie, P3 0:16, wrist, on goal, 0.07 xGDawson Mercer, P3 14:37, wrist, on goal, 0.07 xGBrayden Point, P3 4:16, wrist, on goal, 0.06 xGDominic James, P2 6:12, wrist, on goal, 0.06 xGConor Geekie, P1 3:03, tip-in, missed, 0.06 xGNikita Kucherov, P1 2:14, wrist, on goal, 0.06 xGAlex Iafallo, P2 19:16, tip-in, missed, 0.05 xGNikita Kucherov, P1 14:09, wrist, missed, 0.04 xGKyle Connor, P1 9:12, wrist, on goal, 0.04 xGGage Goncalves, P3 2:56, wrist, on goal, 0.04 xGDylan DeMelo, P1 4:53, wrist, missed, 0.01 xGElias Salomonsson, P1 6:52, slap, on goal, 0.03 xGRyan McDonagh, P1 11:14, snap, missed, 0.02 xGCole Perfetti, P1 11:30, wrist, missed, 0.01 xGNeal Pionk, P1 11:57, slap, on goal, 0.02 xGJohn Carlson, P1 14:21, snap, on goal, 0.03 xGBrandon Hagel, P1 19:24, wrist, on goal, 0.02 xGNikita Kucherov, P2 0:37, slap, missed, 0.03 xGCharle-Edouard D'Astous, P2 0:46, slap, on goal, 0.02 xGNeal Pionk, P2 8:19, wrist, on goal, 0.02 xGIsak Rosen, P2 9:27, wrist, missed, 0.03 xGElias Salomonsson, P2 10:53, wrist, on goal, 0.03 xGVictor Hedman, P2 12:34, snap, missed, 0.03 xGDylan Samberg, P2 13:00, slap, on goal, 0.03 xGDylan DeMelo, P2 16:35, slap, missed, 0.02 xGDylan DeMelo, P2 16:45, slap, on goal, 0.02 xGMario Ferraro, P2 18:20, slap, missed, 0.02 xGCole Perfetti, P3 1:32, wrist, on goal, 0.03 xGDylan Samberg, P3 1:51, slap, on goal, 0.01 xGIlya Mikheyev, P3 4:37, wrist, missed, 0.02 xGKyle Connor, P3 5:57, wrist, missed, 0.03 xGJ.J. Moser, P3 7:56, wrist, on goal, 0.01 xGDawson Mercer, P3 8:36, wrist, on goal, 0.03 xGDylan Samberg, P3 9:29, wrist, missed, 0.03 xGJohn Carlson, P3 11:55, wrist, missed, 0.01 xGCharle-Edouard D'Astous, P3 12:28, wrist, on goal, 0.02 xGGage Goncalves, P3 13:01, slap, missed, 0.02 xGDominic James, P3 13:23, slap, on goal, 0.04 xGBrayden Point, P3 15:05, wrap-around, missed, 0.03 xGBrad Lambert, P3 19:57, backhand, missed, 0.01 xGPontus Holmberg, P3 18:29, snap, goal, 0.43 xGAnthony Cirelli, P2 15:56, deflected, goal, 0.23 xGBrandon Hagel, P2 19:03, snap, goal, 0.19 xGNeal Pionk, P3 8:50, snap, goal, 0.17 xGJohn Carlson, P2 18:07, snap, goal, 0.15 xGConor Geekie, P2 9:43, backhand, goal, 0.12 xGBrayden Point, P1 2:20, wrist, goal, 0.11 xGDylan Samberg, P3 7:00, deflected, goal, 0.10 xGKyle Connor, P3 17:12, wrist, goal, 0.05 xGNeal Pionk, P1 17:45, slap, goal, 0.02 xG
End
WPG ← 4 G · 21 SOG · 37 unblocked · 2.10 xG goal on goal miss44 unblocked · 31 SOG · 6 G · 4.62 xG → TBL
Area = xG:0.050.200.50smallest ≤ 0.04

Winnipeg Jets skaters

PlayerTOICF%GF%xGF%xGFxGASh%Sv%PDO
Dylan Samberg
D
2257.566.737.91.131.8633.371.4104.8
Neal Pionk
D
2255.060.032.90.931.8927.371.498.7
Mark Scheifele
F
2157.660.040.70.761.1030.071.4101.4
Mario Ferraro
D
2035.00.025.80.631.820.084.684.6
Dylan DeMelo
D
2030.20.026.90.621.690.092.992.9
Kyle Connor
F
1960.533.342.41.031.4115.455.670.9
Gabriel Vilardi
F
1961.360.042.20.741.0230.066.796.7
Cole Perfetti
F
1773.175.054.50.760.6330.075.0105.0
Adam Lowry
F
1733.30.021.70.642.310.085.785.7
Elias Salomonsson
D
1655.00.044.30.420.530.071.471.4
Haydn Fleury
D
1624.025.011.00.181.4433.378.6111.9
Alex Iafallo
F
1631.30.017.50.502.350.086.786.7
Dawson Mercer
F
1559.333.364.30.820.4514.350.064.3
Morgan Barron
F
1422.70.019.70.230.950.087.587.5
Viggo Björck
F
1260.050.063.10.660.3914.366.781.0
Isak Rosen
F
1230.00.024.50.260.810.087.587.5
Brad Lambert
F
925.0–10.90.040.340.0100.0100.0
Cole Koepke
F
913.3–6.00.040.610.0100.0100.0

Tampa Bay Lightning skaters

PlayerTOICF%GF%xGF%xGFxGASh%Sv%PDO
Jake Guentzel
F
2360.850.074.22.630.925.988.994.8
Brandon Hagel
F
2254.560.078.11.800.5127.375.0102.3
Brayden Point
F
2064.350.079.12.530.676.385.792.0
Charle-Edouard D'Astous
D
1968.850.075.82.620.8411.166.777.8
Erik Cernak
D
1936.033.357.20.930.6920.075.095.0
Anthony Cirelli
F
1951.566.776.62.170.6640.075.0115.0
J.J. Moser
D
1942.3100.046.80.450.5220.0100.0120.0
Victor Hedman
D
1843.533.363.40.640.3720.066.786.7
Pontus Holmberg
F
1848.066.772.71.280.4857.160.0117.1
Ryan McDonagh
D
1836.0100.053.40.740.6540.0100.0140.0
Nikita Kucherov
F
1657.150.072.82.120.797.185.792.9
Ilya Mikheyev
F
1662.5–50.60.530.520.0100.0100.0
John Carlson
D
1375.080.074.41.730.5930.866.797.4
Gage Goncalves
F
1272.050.067.00.980.4816.750.066.7
Dominic James
F
1245.0100.033.10.270.5420.0100.0120.0
Conor Geekie
F
1264.066.772.81.010.3833.366.7100.0
Jeffrey Viel
F
1160.050.071.60.560.2225.066.791.7
Emil Lilleberg
D
931.30.015.20.070.390.083.383.3