About
I'm Brant Hardy, and I make Paper Puck on my own. I'm a hockey fan who wanted on-ice numbers I could read at a glance, with a plain word on what each one means.
Why I made it
Numbers like shot attempts and expected goals say a lot about a game, but most places that show them assume you already know what they mean. I wanted one place that shows them, explains them in plain words, and counts every one of them from the NHL's own data.
What it is, and isn't
It's free. There are no accounts and no ads.
It isn't a betting site. There are no odds, tips or sportsbook links. The pre-game win chances are a model's best guess, there to explain a game, not to bet on one.
It isn't affiliated with or endorsed by the NHL. Every number comes from the league's public data.
How the numbers are made
I start from the NHL's public play-by-play and shift data for every game since 2019-20. From that I work out who was on the ice for each shot and goal, and I fit the expected-goals and win-probability models myself. Methodology explains how each number is made and how well the models hold up.
Credit
I learned these methods from people who published their work first. Credits lists each one and what I took from it. Their work shaped how I count, but none of their numbers are on this site.
Contact
Spotted a mistake, or have a question? Email me at hello@paperpuck.com.