Score & venue adjustment
A team that's behind outshoots the team ahead of it, and the home team outshoots the visitor. So a raw count flatters a team that spent its season trailing or at home. The adjustment takes that out, so you can compare teams and players on level terms. It can't take out who they played or who they played with.
The Adjust: Score & venue switch on the Skaters and Teams tables (and a team's page) weighs every shot attempt by how the league shoots in that score and rink. Weighted, the average team reads 50% in every score state.
Here's how. Say home teams leading by one take 40 of the league's 100 attempts in that state. Then a home attempt there counts 1.25 and an away one 0.83. Both sides come to 50, and the league's total doesn't change.
I fit the weights myself, on the NHL's play-by-play, from each season and the two before it. Shares, Sh%, Sv% and PDO are worked out from the weighted counts. Ice time and games played aren't weighted, and the game pages and game logs stay raw.
The nitty-gritty
Within one strength and one score (the home team's lead before the attempt), say the league took N attempts, Nhome by home teams and Naway by visitors. Each home attempt counts (N ÷ 2) ÷ Nhome and each away attempt (N ÷ 2) ÷ Naway.
- Each count has its own weights: Corsi (every attempt), Fenwick (unblocked), shots on goal, goals and expected goals (where N is summed xG).
- The lead is capped at three goals either way for attempts and shots, and at one (leading, tied, trailing) for goals and xG, which are too few to split further.
- All situations, 5v5 and even strength are each fit on their own. A power play isn't an even contest, so power play and short-handed are fit together against the league's power-play share (87.9% of special-teams attempts) rather than half, with the state also saying which team has the extra man.
- A season without weights of its own uses the nearest season's. Only games counted with every attempt's score can be weighted, so a season with any other game is left blank under the switch rather than shown raw.
The newest weights, for 2026-27, fit on 2,888 games (2024-25, 2025-26, 2026-27). Tied at 5v5, home teams take 51.4% of the attempts. Corsi at 5v5:
| Score | Home share | Home weight | Away weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home up 3+ | 44.7% | 1.118 | 0.905 |
| Home up 2 | 45.3% | 1.105 | 0.913 |
| Home up 1 | 47.0% | 1.064 | 0.944 |
| Tied | 51.4% | 0.972 | 1.029 |
| Home down 1 | 54.1% | 0.925 | 1.089 |
| Home down 2 | 55.9% | 0.895 | 1.133 |
| Home down 3+ | 57.2% | 0.874 | 1.169 |
Expected goals at 5v5:
| Score | Home share | Home weight | Away weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home up 1+ | 49.9% | 1.002 | 0.998 |
| Tied | 51.7% | 0.968 | 1.034 |
| Home down 1+ | 51.7% | 0.967 | 1.035 |